Herd immunity – estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries

Published:March 21, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.03.027
      Previous workers have attempted to predict the cumulative number of cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
      • Fu X.
      • Ying Q.
      • Zeng T.
      • Long T.
      • Wang Y.
      Simulating and forecasting the cumulative confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in China by Boltzmann function-based regression analyses.
      However, since then, the epidemic has rapidly evolved into a pandemic affecting multiple countries worlwide.
      COVID-19 situation in the WHO European Region
      There have been serious debates about how to react to the spread of this disease, particularly by European countries, such as Italy, Spain, Germany, France and the UK, e.g. from closing schools and universities to locking down entire cities and countries. An alternative strategy would be to allow the causal virus (SARS-CoV-2) to spread to increase the population herd immunity, but at the same time protecting the elderly and those with multiple comorbidities, who are the most vulnerable to this virus.

      Coronavirus: some scientists say UK virus strategy is `risking lives'. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402. Accessed 14 March2020.

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      References

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