Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Summary 

Objective

To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS).

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged ≥14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emílio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model.

Results

The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1–5.9); serum creatinine (μmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1–1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1–1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1–236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3–23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80).

Conclusions

We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality.

Keywords: Leptospirosis, Leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome, ROC curve, Predictive model, Brazil